In the spirit of Oswald

It’s been more than 60 years since the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Those who remember where they were and what they were doing on that fateful day in 1963 are becoming smaller in number. Since that afternoon in Dallas, Lee Harvey Oswald has been viewed as a glory-seeking sociopath who, according to every official account, acted alone. No one offered him the adulation or hero worship he so desired.

That is, perhaps, until now. For today’s potential assassins and mass shooters, there could not be a better role model than this isolated extremist seeking fame and achieving it, albeit the short-lived kind. Now, among certain young people, Oswald is achieving the admiration he sought.

Thomas Matthew Crooks’ thinking may have been remarkably like Oswald’s when he took the shot at Donald Trump. Both were outcasts by all accounts—bullied, isolated, and in desperate need of validation. Oswald’s bullet hit his target; Crooks’ only grazed his. But while the distance from Oswald’s nest in the Texas Schoolbook Depository to Kennedy’s limousine was some 265 feet, Crooks’ bullet had to travel roughly 400 feet. Crooks’ shot was more difficult and surprisingly accurate in light of the fact that years earlier he had failed to make the high school rifle team because he was such a bad shot.

Oswald’s name surfaced again in reference to rooftop shooter Robert Crimo III, who killed seven people and injured dozens of others during a Highland Park Fourth of July parade in 2022. A famous photo of Crimo features a newspaper announcing Oswald’s murder taped to an otherwise bare wall behind him.

Mass shootings have become commonplace in the modern world. But as every incident and shooter is analyzed, new common denominators are emerging—a link between shooters of the past and those of the present. More often than not, these perpetrators are neither insane nor delusional. But they are political extremists, with their beliefs constantly reinforced by others of the same mind: their violent acts are in fact due to their extreme overvalued beliefs.

An extreme belief “is one that is shared by others in a person’s cultural, religious, or subcultural group. The belief is often relished, amplified, and defended,” forensic scientist Tahir Rahman states. “An extreme belief may grow more dominant over time, more refined, and more resilient to challenge. Thinking becomes simplistic, binary, and absolute. The individual has an intense emotional commitment to the belief and may carry out violent behavior because of it.”

Extreme Overvalued Beliefs include:

• The 9/11 attacks;
• Unabomber (Ted Kaczynski);
• Oklahoma City bombing;
• Boston Marathon attack;
• Dylan Roof (hate crime);
• Thomas Matthew Crooks (attack on former president Trump).

Crucial to Rahman’s discourse is the fact that the post 9/11 world set the stage for a breakthrough—the Terrorism Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), developed by psychologist and FBI consultant Dr. J. Reid Meloy. The TRAP-18 is a structured and scientifically tested approach for threat assessment that has undoubtedly saved numerous lives. Importantly, the TRAP-18 helps professionals identify potential attackers before the violence starts. Behaviors of potential assailants fall into two categories: distal characteristics (of which there are 10) and proximal warning signs (of which there are 8). Distal characteristics include personal grievances, failure to affiliate with a group (rejection from those with like beliefs), and criminal violence. Proximal warning signs include things like fixation, a sudden burst of energy in the perpetrator, or a directly communicated threat.

Oswald was not unknown to the state department and other federal agencies of 1963. If FBI and Secret Service units had access to current threat assessment tools, he might never have made it as far as his sniper’s nest in the Texas School Book Depository. To thwart potential future offenders, TRAP-18 needs to be utilized to an even greater degree, Rahman feels.

Threat Analysis

To do this, Rahman has created a four-part threat analysis to identify facts and circumstances that would lead a reasonable person to believe that an individual is committing or is attempting to commit a criminal offense (poses a threat to self and/or others). This assessment tool takes away personal bias and instead focuses on actual behavioral signatures, in doing so avoiding profiling people based solely on their race, ethnicity, etc.

1. Threats due to psychotic delusions (fixed, false, idiosyncratic)

“My neighbor is a space alien and is trying to kill me.”

“Satan has instructed me to kill them.”

Commonly seen in: Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder with psychosis, Depression with psychosis, Drug-induced psychosis.

Treatment: Secure weapons with law enforcement, antipsychotic medications, emergency civil commitment to a mental health facility, case management.

2. Threats due to Extreme Overvalued Beliefs

“I am going to be a professional school shooter.”

“The West is at war with Islam.”

“Black people are replacing White people.”

Intervention: Secure weapons with law enforcement, treat co-occurring problems (e.g. mood, anxiety, drug use), crisis response teams, unique behavioral management (e.g. family, group, and individual therapy), case management.

3. Threats due to obsessions (intrusive, unwanted thoughts)

Usually pose a low risk of harm to others.

“I can’t stop thinking that I might hurt someone.”

Treatment: OCD medication, talk therapy, OCD foundation.

4. Threats due to addictive/behavioral issues, alcohol/drugs, paraphilias, domestic violence, or personality disorder (e.g. Psychopathy)

Treatment: Secure weapons with law enforcement, drug rehabilitation centers, medication- assisted treatment, (family, individual, and group) therapy. Sometimes jail or prison is the only answer.

Since 2014, the U.S. has witnessed more than 4,000 shootings involving multiple victims. More often than not, mental illness or delusional thinking is blamed. But in truth, what lies beyond these facades may be as diverse as the cultures from which they spring.

Extreme Overvalued Beliefs lie at the heart of many incidents. Once that is recognized, the steps toward preventing radicalization may well be doable.

_{Featured image by Dakota L. via Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 4.0.}