Hurricanes & the ‘Butterfly Effect’

Kerry Emanuel, author of Divine Wind, spoke to the Miami Herald over the weekend and discussed one of the more promising ideas for pushing potentially devastating storms back out to sea.

The most promising [idea] is from [atmospheric researcher] Ross Hoffman. His idea is based on the ”butterfly effect” — introducing a perturbation — a disturbance — like a butterfly flapping its wings. The effect created grows with time, and after several weeks you’ve managed to change the weather due to the exquisite sensitivity of the atmosphere.

Suppose there is a Category 4 hurricane due to hit Miami in three days. We ask of a complex model: “Where do we need shove the atmosphere a little bit so as to change the weather patterns in such a way that the storm instead goes somewhere else offshore.

This happens naturally all the time. Floyd in 1999 when back out to sea. Unfortunately it hit North Carolina. It’s all a matter of chance.

So a plausible scenario is that in order to have this affect, I would need to go somewhere over the central of part of the north Pacific Ocean and introduce a small disturbance, perhaps in temperature, into the strong westerly flow over the ocean that, over the next three days, would amplify and change the steering currents so that the hurricane goes harmlessly out to sea.

Q. Has this been done?

A. We don’t know how to manufacture this disturbance. One scenario has airplanes lay down contrails made of black carbon to absorb sunlight and create the temperature perturbation. This would grow and change the steering currents three days hence.

This is so scientifically well-grounded, I am confident that it will be done. Whether it is in our lifetime is another question. Though there was no evidence that hurricane seeding worked, it was a reflection that government was willing to try things like that. Today it’s more conservative and considered tampering with the environment. But the butterfly metaphor is not doing anything different from nature, just doing it in a tailored way. It’s not weather modification, it’s disaster avoidance. Of course, if you steer a hurricane away from Miami, it might hit Bermuda. Imagine the fun the lawyers would have with that.

LINK to Q&A in the Miami Herald.

LINK to more from Kerry Emanuel at OUPblog.